MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ID...MT...WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 061905Z - 062000Z
   
   EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MT AND NWRN WY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
   POTENT AND WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LATEST SURFACE AND
   SATELLITE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ON THE ID/MT BORDER. WEAK LEE
   TROUGHING EXISTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
   FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN MT. THESE FEATURES...IN
   ADDITION TO FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL ACT AS FOCUSING
   MECHANISMS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
   
   AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ACTS TO STEEPEN MID LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTENING/WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN THE 800-1200
   J/KG RANGE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS IN
   THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS.
   
   ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE INITIALLY QUASI-DISCRETE
   CELLS/SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED AND TAKE ON LINEAR
   CHARACTERISTICS AS COLD FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED EAST OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
   LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO BEFORE ACTIVITY
   MERGES AND EVOLVES INTO SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WINDS BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT WITH TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   LAT...LON   44250889 44271267 45971397 47741398 48261315 48631162
               48580833 48030672 46600622 45920634 45000750 44250889