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Mesoscale Discussion 1457
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...NW IA...FAR SE SD...SRN AND CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...433...

   VALID 180426Z - 180630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   432...433...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM SRN AND CNTRL
   MN IN NERN NEB AND NW IA. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
   ALTHOUGH HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...TWO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE
   MID MO VALLEY NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FIRST IS LOCATED
   IN SWRN MN TO THE EAST OF A SFC LOW AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A
   POCKET OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTION IS
   LOCATED IN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THE MINNEAPOLIS WSR-88D
   VWP SHOWING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 0 TO 3 KM AGL. THIS WILL
   AIDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING STRUCTURE AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   MOVES ESEWD ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
   TO MOVE ACROSS SRN MN EVENTUALLY REACHING AREAS NEAR THE MN-IA
   STATE-LINE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...A SECOND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM IS ONGOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF OMAHA. OUTFLOW HAS SURGED OUT
   AHEAD OF THE SRN PART OF THE SYSTEM. ON THE NRN END...THE CONVECTION
   NEAR SIOUX CITY IA HAS A BOWING STRUCTURE AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
   MOVING ENEWD INTO NWRN IA WHERE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT WITH 40 KT OF
   FLOW ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE SFC. THIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
   DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...HAIL COULD
   ALSO OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   44509273 45129378 45429483 45479546 45259623 44899665
               44389668 43949667 43279689 42779730 42139817 41549844
               41279815 41249728 41449674 41649634 42089546 42479490
               43309386 43799300 44509273 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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