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Mesoscale Discussion 1457
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241606Z - 241730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT
   THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. PLANS ARE TO
   INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A 15% SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL ON THE 1630Z OUTLOOK
   UPDATE.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED
   STORMS PERSIST FROM SERN ND INTO ERN SD...MOVING SSEWD ALONG A
   NNW-SSE ORIENTED INSTABILITY/THETA-E GRADIENT. STORMS ARE ELEVATED
   AND LIKELY ROOTED IN THE 700-750 MB LAYER BASED ON THE 12Z ABERDEEN
   RAOB. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ABOVE THE LCL ALONG WITH
   MODERATE MUCAPE...AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SOME
   STORMS TO DEVELOP MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS
   UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON
   NOSE OF A PERSISTENT SLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS INTO AT LEAST
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS UNLIKELY STORMS WILL EVER BECOME SFC
   BASED GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER.
   HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE SLY LLJ.

   ..DIAL/WEISS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   43289531 42529640 43859722 46319878 46489661 43289531 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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