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Mesoscale Discussion 1458
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241633Z - 241800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER ERN NC. OVERALL
   THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY HAVE UNDERGONE A MODEST INCREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OVER
   ERN NC. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW 70F
   DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE 1500-2000 J/KG
   MLCAPE...BUT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED
   INTO A LINEAR MODE AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
   OVERALL LINE OF STORMS IS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
   LAYER WINDS...WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF N-S ORIENTED BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE
   RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED...AND A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

   ..DIAL/WEISS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35047911 35587692 36037588 35727545 35177558 34777712
               34647882 35047911 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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