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Mesoscale Discussion 1458
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MN...W-CNTRL/SWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...

   VALID 180523Z - 180630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BOWING QLCS OVER THE WRN TWIN CITES METRO AREA SHOULD
   CONTINUE E/SEWD WITH AT LEAST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A RISK FOR BRIEF
   QLCS TORNADO OR TWO. UNLESS RAPID DIMINISHING OF CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY OCCURS SOON...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...BOWING QLCS WITH A SWATH OF AROUND 40-KT MEASURED WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO
   AREA DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR GIVEN FORWARD EWD MOVEMENT OF ABOUT
   40-45 KT. A QUITE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MODIFIED FOR THIS
   STORM MOTION SUPPORTS 0-1 SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2 WHICH WILL FAVOR A
   RISK FOR A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
   /35-50 KT/. THIS BOW MAY TURN A BIT MORE SELY WITH TIME ALONG THE MS
   RIVER AS IT LIKELY RIDES ALONG THE THETA-E/MLCAPE GRADIENT...WITH
   THE NRN EXTENT WEAKENING GIVEN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF
   NRN WI.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45419341 45409263 45109168 44749070 44309026 43819022
               43519029 43409064 43609143 43909278 44159352 44359373
               44649357 45419341 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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