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Mesoscale Discussion 1459
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN MT...NWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241950Z - 242045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND HAIL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN MT. IT IS UNCERTAIN
   WHETHER TSTM COVERAGE AND ACCOMPANYING SPATIAL EXTENT OF THESE
   THREATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING
   EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH BAND OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS N-CNTRL MT INTO SWRN SK PER
   RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
   DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS BAND OF ASCENT BETWEEN CTB AND HVR...BUT
   APPEAR TO BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS
   DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS AREA INTO NERN MT IS CHARACTERIZED BY RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
   F/...AND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AMIDST STRONG HEATING. THE SPECIAL
   18Z SOUNDING FROM GGW MODIFIED FOR 19Z SFC OBS IS YIELDING AROUND
   1000 J/KG OF CAPE...WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN EML
   PLUME ALSO NOTED.

   WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT LARGELY POST-FRONTAL ATTM...AND
   THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CINH ACROSS THE REGION...FOCUS FOR NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR...AND LENDS UNCERTAINTY
   ABOUT TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. A
   DMGG WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY ISOLATED
   COVERAGE AND DISCRETE/CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODES. TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WHICH MAY INCLUDE PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND
   NERN MT...AND POSSIBLY NWRN ND.

   ..ROGERS/WEISS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48950284 48390276 47610334 47050499 46910577 46970796
               47080966 47051015 47761029 48961024 48950284 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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