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Mesoscale Discussion 1459
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN WI...SERN MN...FAR NERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...

   VALID 180705Z - 180830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BOWING QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
   EMBEDDED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY
   W-CNTRL WI. TRAILING PORTION OF THE LINE MIGHT INTENSIFY NEAR THE
   MN/IA BORDER TOWARDS THE MS RIVER.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A WELL-DEFINED BOW/COMMA-HEAD SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO PROGRESS E/SE AMID CURRENT SPEED AROUND 45 KT. MEASURED ASOS/AWOS
   GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAVE BEEN AROUND 40 KT WITH
   EMBEDDED SWATHS TO 55 KT. WAKE-LOW WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MEASURED
   FROM 45-55 KT AS WELL. MPX VWP DATA SAMPLED A 70-KT REAR-INFLOW JET
   BEHIND THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE WHICH HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO
   W-CNTRL WI. THIS PART OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

   SWWD TRAILING PORTION OF QLCS HAS HAD CONSISTENTLY WEAKER GUSTS
   AROUND 30 KT TO ISOLATED 40 KT. BUT GIVEN LARGER POTENTIAL BUOYANCY
   RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT FLANKING CELLS ALONG
   THE S-CNTRL MN/N-CNTRL IA BORDER MIGHT FOSTER A SECONDARY SURGE OF
   THE COLD POOL ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MN/NERN IA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44279250 44679218 45189235 45369211 45449149 45419054
               45208964 44938931 44508931 43928962 43439054 43249158
               43149208 43269324 43419355 43649337 43949315 44279250 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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