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Mesoscale Discussion 1460
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA THROUGH NERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242026Z - 242200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT
   THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A CLUSTER OVER SERN
   VA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS...A CELL HAS TAKEN
   ON MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER CHESTERFIELD COUNTY. IN
   WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS...PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY HAS
   OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG WITH
   LOW 70F DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. CONCERN IS
   THAT A MODEST INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MIGHT OCCUR AS
   STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE WITH TRAILING COLD POOL. WEAK MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MODEST /30-35 KT/ EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
   NEVERTHELESS A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   OCCUR AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..DIAL/WEISS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36877875 37227786 37427665 36557613 36127718 36297865
               36877875 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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