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Mesoscale Discussion 1460
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN WI...FAR SERN MN/NERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...

   VALID 180806Z - 180930Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH QLCS APPEARS TO BE PAST PEAK IN TERMS OF OVERALL
   INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION...SWATHS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING TREE
   DAMAGE SHOULD PERSIST TOWARDS SUNRISE. PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS 60 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MOST
   OF THE QLCS FROM W-CNTRL WI TO THE SERN MN/NERN IA BORDER WITH
   OVERALL FORWARD SPEED AROUND 45 KT. RECENT VIL AND MID-LEVEL CAPPI
   TRENDS SUGGEST THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE LINE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN
   GIVEN ITS PROGRESSION INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS PRESENT OVER NRN
   WI. THIS SUGGESTS THE APEX OF THE LINE SHOULD TEND TO TRACK MORE
   SEWD OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN WI GIVEN A PERSISTENT NW/SE-ORIENTED
   THETA-E/BUOYANCY GRADIENT WITH A RISK FOR SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE.
   03-04Z ESRL-HRRR RUNS WHICH HAD SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE QLCS /ALTHOUGH
   NOT AS WELL-DEFINED NOR AS FAST AS OBSERVED/...BOTH SUGGEST
   SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   45379089 45368978 45048914 44748862 44458848 43968855
               43518883 43128934 43028983 42959051 42969105 43059162
               43199209 43499210 43829144 44119100 44779075 45379089 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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