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Mesoscale Discussion 1461
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND...NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242107Z - 242200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY
   ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CU
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS ACROSS SERN MT...AIDED BY STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING AND A POSSIBLE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM
   UPPER TROUGH. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z PLACED A WEAK SFC LOW
   NW OF MLS...WITH A TROUGH PROTRUDING SEWD INTO NERN WY...AND A COLD
   FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL MT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WAS
   POSITIONED E OF THE SFC TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S F /HIGHER THAN BEING DEPICTED BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE/...AND
   IS CO-LOCATED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED...AND
   WEAK CAPPING MAY STILL BE PRESENT DESPITE TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
   THE MID-90S F...WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM
   COVERAGE. HOWEVER...AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS IF ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP...AND A SUBSEQUENT
   THREAT FOR BOTH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
   LIKELY ATTM.

   ..ROGERS/WEISS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   46440556 46530397 46500313 46300280 45750257 45240325
               45110474 45030634 45050749 45680815 46230820 46550768
               46440556 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2014
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