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Mesoscale Discussion 1461
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435...

   VALID 181024Z - 181200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KT WILL BE CAPABLE OF SCATTERED
   TREE DAMAGE. WHILE OVERALL INTENSITY MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...THE
   DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE QLCS ENTERS LK MI.

   DISCUSSION...MEASURED WIND GUSTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REMAINED FROM
   35-45 KT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A QLCS EXTENDING FROM SHAWANO TO
   COLUMBIA COUNTIES AS OF 1020Z. FORWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED A TAD
   FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING TO AROUND 35-40 KT. LOW-LEVEL WSWLYS /PER
   MKX VWP DATA/ WILL SUPPORT WARM THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SRN WI TO
   THE WRN SHORE OF LK MI. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
   QLCS...WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER N-CNTRL WI AND ROBUST PRESSURE RISES IN
   ITS WAKE...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
   LINE REACHES THE LK MI SHORE. THE APEX OF THE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO
   TRACK E/SE ACROSS THE LK WINNEBAGO TO SHEBOYGAN AREAS THROUGH 12Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42938733 42948828 43138924 43228966 43648906 44208865
               44698861 44618787 44378685 42938733 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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