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Mesoscale Discussion 1462
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN SD...CNTRL/WRN NEB...NWRN KS...NERN
   CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242145Z - 250015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A LEE TROUGH ARCING S OF WEAK
   LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS INTO WRN NEB AND NW KS. WEAK
   CONVERGENCE INVOF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH DEEP PBL CIRCULATIONS TO
   ITS W ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS PER MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
   W OF THE TROUGH -- LOCALLY REACHING 40-60F IN CONVECTIVELY
   UNDISTURBED AIR -- WILL YIELD A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS
   WITH INTENSE MICROBURSTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. WITH TIME...MERGING COLD
   POOLS COULD YIELD LOCALIZED POCKETS OF UPSCALE GROWTH/MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS AS CONVECTION SPREADS ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS.

   THE AIR MASS IS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...BUT MOISTER...E OF THE LEE
   TROUGH...FEATURING GREATER MLCAPE WITH EWD EXTENT. AS SUCH...A RISK
   FOR LOCALLY SVR STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...WITH ISOLATED SVR
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
   HOWEVER...THE ERN EXPANSE OF SUCH RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY
   PROGRESSIVELY GREATER MLCINH IN THE COOLER AIR ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
   SD/NEB/KS...EVENTUALLY ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. ALSO...WHILE
   DEFINITIVE ESEWD-DIRECTED ANVIL SPREAD PER VIS IMAGERY IS LIKELY A
   RESPONSE TO ENHANCED HIGH-LEVEL FLOW -- BOOSTING CONVECTIVE
   VENTILATION -- VWPS SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 0-6-KM BULK
   SHEAR ARE ONLY MODEST...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE OVERALL
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43449969 44500052 44470271 43110293 40400383 39530253
               39960007 41299943 43449969 

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