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Mesoscale Discussion 1463
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

   VALID 242253Z - 250030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR HAIL/WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 439. AN
   ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK MAY EXIST FARTHER S INTO SERN MT...NWRN
   SD...AND SWRN ND...BUT SHOULD NOT REQUIRE SEPARATE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE EWD/ENEWD INVOF A COLD FRONT CROSSING ERN MT. THE FRONT
   CURRENTLY ARCS FROM NEAR GLASGOW TO BILLINGS...AND IS PRECEDED BY
   AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE EARLIER 12Z
   GGW RAOB AND NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WELL IN ADVANCE
   OF THE FRONT ACROSS SERN MT ARE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
   TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT AMIDST A DEEP...WELL MIXED PBL. THIS LATTER
   ACTIVITY IS W OF A LEE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM E-CNTRL MT TO NEAR RAPID
   CITY SD.

   GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF AMPLE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 40-60-KT
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY...THE RISK FOR SVR
   HAIL/WIND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   HOWEVER...AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WRN
   DAKOTAS...IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES OWING TO /1/ EARLIER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.../2/ CAPPING
   ATTENDANT TO AN EML PLUME...AND /3/ NOCTURNAL COOLING. THESE FACTORS
   CAST DOUBT IN THE EVENTUAL SUSTAINABILITY OF INTENSE CONVECTION INTO
   THE DAKOTAS...DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. PROSPECTS FOR AN ORGANIZED...LARGE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA APPEAR LIMITED.

   ..COHEN.. 07/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   49010211 47430160 46080211 45190366 45330544 46210674
               47670742 48800692 49010211 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2014
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