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Mesoscale Discussion 1463
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LOWER MI/NRN AND ERN INDIANA/PARTS OF WRN
   OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181726Z - 181930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NERN
   INDIANA VICINITY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN ONGOING LOWER MI MCS.  WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED AS SEVERE RISK GRADUALLY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL A VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE IN/WRN OH VICINITY ATTM...S AND SE
   OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS
   LOWER MI TOWARD/INTO ONTARIO ATTM.  PERSISTENT HEATING OF THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PER VIS
   IMAGERY...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS ALL
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  

   IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...A GRADUAL
   UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NERN INDIANA
   OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE LEADING EDGE
   OF OUTFLOW.  CONTINUED HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASES
   IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY...WITH SSWLY INFLOW AND THE MAIN
   INSTABILITY AXIS S OF THE CONVECTION FAVORING UPDRAFT FORMATION TO
   THE SW OF ONGOING STORMS -- AND THUS OVERALL SEWD/SSEWD PROPAGATION
   OF CONVECTION.  MODERATE BACKGROUND WLYS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT AT
   LEAST MULTICELL ORGANIZATION -- WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   YIELDING RISK FOR WIND/HAIL.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLY BECOMING
   NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   41388507 41858417 41598325 40978293 40068335 39598403
               39858532 40328657 41318691 41388507 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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