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Mesoscale Discussion 1465
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181805Z - 182000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL /POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE INCH IN DIAMETER/
   AND ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
   MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS PRESENT
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE
   ANEMIC DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT AN ORGANIZED
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT. INSTEAD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
   TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
   TREE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS STEMMING
   FROM WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS. WHAT LITTLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THERE IS
   HAS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT...WHICH
   SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION TO
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF/PULSATING NATURE OF THE STRONGEST
   THUNDERSTORM CORES...A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36988670 37198397 36577970 36477813 35537787 34657850
               33847948 33838038 34068214 34318395 35088545 36988670 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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