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Mesoscale Discussion 1465
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0823 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN ND AND FAR ERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

   VALID 250123Z - 250300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING-VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 439. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
   MAY OCCUR...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT LOCAL EWD EXTENSION OF
   THE WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INVOF THE
   MT/ND BORDER WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD AT 35-50 KT IN TANDEM WITH A
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD POOLS ARE
   ENCOURAGING STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES IN ITS WAKE -- E.G. 3.0-5.5 MB
   PER 2 HOURS. THE ATTENDANT ISALLOBARIC FORCING HAS HAD A RECENT
   HISTORY OF SUPPORTING MEASURED SVR WIND GUSTS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
   IN THE BAND. AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND...IT
   WILL EXPERIENCE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAPPING -- REF. 00Z BIS RAOB
   -- AND PERHAPS WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL SFC COOLING AND ASSOCIATED PBL
   STABILIZATION MAY ALSO PROVE DELETERIOUS IS SUSTAINING ANY
   APPRECIABLE SVR RISK BEYOND AN HOUR OR TWO FROM PRESENT.
   HOWEVER...WITH STRONG ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVELY
   AUGMENTED SYNOPTIC COLD POOL AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THERE
   IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT SVR WINDS MAY EXTEND E OF THE WW. THIS
   COULD REQUIRE LOCAL EWD EXTENSION OF THE WW.

   ..COHEN.. 07/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46310366 48480413 48970272 48930106 48040041 46510119
               46310366 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2014
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