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Mesoscale Discussion 1466
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252025Z - 252130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DMGG
   WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF SRN/CNTRL AZ...WITHIN THE ERN FRINGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
   MOIST PLUME. 18Z SOUNDING FROM TUS SAMPLED NEAR 1.3 INCH OF PW...AND
   AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY
   APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA
   OF MOISTENING CO-LOCATED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER SERN AZ AND
   NRN SONORA...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY AN APPARENT SUBTLE IMPULSE
   PROGRESSING WWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NM. TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
   DESERTS /INCLUDING THE TUS AND POSSIBLY PHX METRO AREAS LATER/. WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE AND BRIEF MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
   MODES...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...A WW APPEARS UNNECESSARY.

   ..ROGERS/DIAL.. 07/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31921294 33191320 34181308 34801250 34801207 34651136
               34051061 33441032 31311030 31331109 31921294 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2014
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