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Mesoscale Discussion 1466
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
   AREAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181853Z - 182000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP
   LOW-/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6 AND 8 C/KM HAVE RESULTED IN A
   WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE RESULT HAS BEEN
   AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
   SOMEWHAT LACKING FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...THE
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE AUGMENTED
   LOCALLY THROUGH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STEEP
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATES.

   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

   LAT...LON   33041597 34211592 35471510 36541499 36911489 36921324
               36611285 35121308 33871351 33151345 32541372 32201390
               32481480 32711474 32621590 33041597 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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