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Mesoscale Discussion 1467
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0944 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261444Z - 261615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH
   SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL
   LARGE HAIL SIGNATURES WAS LOCATED JUST NW OF SIOUX FALLS SD AREA.
   THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND WILL EXPERIENCE
   CONSIDERABLE DIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE
   EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...CONCERN IS THAT STORMS
   WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.
   MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF
   HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
   NORTH OF THE ND BORDER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...MODERATE CAPE
   AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 07/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   43439774 43649628 42889389 41829386 41409613 42469823
               43129845 43439774 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2014
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