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Mesoscale Discussion 1468
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...

   VALID 261740Z - 261845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST FROM ERN NEB INTO WRN IA INTO MID AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
   APPROACH THE SRN BORDER OF WW 441 BY 19Z. IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY
   THE WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OR...DEPENDING ON
   CONVECTIVE AND MESOSCALE TRENDS...A NEW WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED OVER NERN NEB REMAINS
   ORGANIZED WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION
   INDICATED. STORMS ARE MOVING SEWD AT 25 KT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   DESTABILIZED WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING 2500-3000
   J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMER AND CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION IS HIGHER WITH SWD EXTENT INTO NEB WHICH RAISES SOME
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH STORMS WILL MANAGE TO
   DEVELOP. STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG /50+ KT/
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

   ..DIAL.. 07/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42279835 42639743 42739633 41249609 41469780 42279835 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2014
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