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Mesoscale Discussion 1468
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN NEB...SERN WY...NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182129Z - 182330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY INTO
   NERN CO MAY POSE SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS
   THEY SPREAD EWD TOWARDS WRN NEB. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A N-S AXIS TO THE
   IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER CNTRL CO/ERN WY.
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MARGINAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-40S INCREASING TO LOW-50S INTO NERN
   CO AND THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 300 J/KG
   INCREASING TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER SWRN NEB PER RAP OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD AMIDST 20-30 KT OF
   MIDLEVEL FLOW...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES MARGINALLY
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS SERN WY AND WRN
   NEB...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
   MULTICELLULAR MODE INTO NERN CO. ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION GIVEN STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN
   UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS TSTMS PROGRESS INTO A GRADUALLY MORE
   UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR MASS...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/MARSH/MEAD.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40420103 40150259 39710420 40040496 40630521 41510530
               41940507 42110421 42130293 42070226 41510122 40420103 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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