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Mesoscale Discussion 1469
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...FAR NWRN OK...OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182152Z - 182245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
   FRONT ORIENTED FROM CNTRL KS SWWD ACROSS FAR NWRN OK INTO THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES. ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE ENOUGH
   TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A GROWING CU FIELD ALONG A WEAK
   COLD FRONT...POSITIONED FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST S OF LBL AS OF
   22Z. VERY STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG/TO THE IMMEDIATE S OF
   THE FRONT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
   100S F...AMIDST MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH
   DCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED SVR DOWNBURST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTION. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RATHER WEAK WITH
   NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...WITH TSTM INITIATION LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY
   ISOLATED...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38319717 37419763 36459873 36040076 35950243 36120285
               36380292 36680246 36740161 36740104 37149983 38009874
               38689794 38849717 38319717 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2015
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