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Mesoscale Discussion 1469
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND...WRN/CNTRL OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261841Z - 261945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN IND AND NWRN OH
   THIS AFTERNOON. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS
   ACROSS NERN IND AND NWRN OH...AND APPEARS TO PRIMARILY BE INITIATED
   BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
   SRN WI. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY NOTABLE
   LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE FEATURES OR SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE. CLOUD COVER
   HAS INHIBITED HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT THE AIR MASS IS
   STILL RELATIVELY MOIST /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
   F/...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT EWD WITH TIME INTO
   PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OH. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS
   LIKELY INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
   APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF
   SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF
   NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT
   FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SUSTAINED TSTMS
   THAT DEVELOP...WITH WW ISSUANCE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER TRENDS SUGGEST
   CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39298403 40148517 41188628 41538604 41498505 41608434
               41528316 41098198 40398172 39808182 39298230 39018323
               39298403 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2014
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