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Mesoscale Discussion 1470
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SRN IL INTO WCNTRL AND SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262020Z - 262215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
   INTENSIFICATION. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE
   THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...ANY WW
   ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON NEAR TERM MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MO INTO WRN IL
   AND CONTINUES SPREADING EWD. ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND FORMING IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED
   OVER NWRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY
   UNSTABLE WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM LINCOLN ILLINOIS INDICATED A STOUT
   CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR AT
   THE BASE OF AN EML THAT HAS ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF WARM SECTOR. IT
   APPEARS THAT ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS NOT BEEN
   DEEP ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IN WARM SECTOR IS LIMITED. THEREFORE...STORMS DEVELOPING
   SO FAR HAVE BEEN BASED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION WITH LIMITED
   SEVERE POTENTIAL. RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
   THE LOW-MID 90S OVER SRN IL...AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE
   BASED STORMS MIGHT STILL INITIATE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   WARM. SHOULD SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOTH
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. OTHERWISE...THE ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
   ADVECTION WING OVER WNCTRL IL COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HAIL.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 07/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37768972 39029018 40129088 40068844 39668692 39198656
               38308719 37668858 37768972 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2014
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