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Mesoscale Discussion 1471
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL AZ...SWRN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437...

   VALID 182253Z - 190000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL AZ AND SWRN UT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A N-S
   AXIS FROM JUST E OF YUM/BLH INTO SWRN UT...WITH EMBEDDED
   MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURES NOTED. OCCASIONAL UPWARD PULSES IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD ISOLATED SVR DOWNBURST
   WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...BUT A MORE
   WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY RELATIVELY
   MODEST /10-20 KT/ LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPERED HEATING DUE TO
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. GREATEST RELATIVE SVR
   THREAT WITHIN WW 437 HAS LIKELY SHIFTED INTO WRN AZ AND SWRN UT
   WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AMIDST A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER...AS
   TSTM OUTFLOW PROGRESSES EWD. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
   SLOWLY INCREASING E OF WW 437 INTO CNTRL AZ...INCLUDING NEAR THE
   GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   32341489 33271477 34431415 36311398 37211410 37821361
               37751277 36571246 34911191 33211163 32161244 31921296
               32341489 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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