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Mesoscale Discussion 1471
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MN...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262021Z - 262115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANYING DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
   EWD INTO ERN MN AND PARTS OF NWRN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INCREASINGLY VERTICAL CU
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM
   N-CNTRL INTO W-CNTRL MN...WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED
   RECENTLY. A NARROW MOIST PLUME PRECEDING THE COLD
   FRONT...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S-LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS...WAS NOTED
   ON THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...WEAK DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT...AND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING A
   SRN CANADA UPPER LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW /50 KT AT 500 MB/
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...A MORE
   WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48019038 46899099 45979148 44949317 44809413 45179518
               46069529 47839470 48589431 48679332 48319120 48019038 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2014
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