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Mesoscale Discussion 1473
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0830 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB....FAR SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190130Z - 190230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS ACROSS NERN KS AND INTO NWRN MO
   AND FAR SWRN IA...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE
   FOR A SVR THREAT. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S F AT MANY
   LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SAMPLED BY THE
   00Z TOP SOUNDING WITH MLCAPE NEAR 3800 J/KG. A DECAYING CLUSTER OF
   TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL KS WERE PROGRESSING
   NEWD...AND IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN KS.
   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS IF AND TO WHAT DEGREE NEW CONVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT A MODEST INCREASE IN THE LLJ
   COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SVR THREAT...GIVEN
   THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY STRONG BUOYANCY AND 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR PRESENT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY FOR NEW SUSTAINED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...IN WHICH CASE A SVR
   TSTM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40029358 38979473 38569647 38809730 39319739 39819650
               40879575 40889459 40539371 40029358 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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