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Mesoscale Discussion 1473
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AND CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270039Z - 270215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE LOWER
   DESERT IS INCREASING.  THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WOULD LIKELY POSE A
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.  THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HOT TEMPS /AROUND 105 DEG F/
   TO THE W OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LOWER DESERT WITH
   TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 50 DEG F.  STEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE
   RATES EVIDENT IN THE 00Z AREA RAOBS WILL SUPPORT
   EVAPORATIVELY-ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS.  0030 UTC 9 KM CAPPI RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL INTENSE REFLECTIVITY CORES OVER ERN GRAHAM AND
   GREENLEE COUNTIES.  HOURLY MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR THIS AFTERNOON
   HAVE INDICATED THIS EVENING/S STORM ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY REMAIN
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE N AND E OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. 
   HOWEVER...THE LATEST /22 UTC/ HRRR SHOWED A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
   PROPAGATING WESTWARD AND AFFECTING THE PHOENIX AREA THIS EVENING. 
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
   OF BOTH THE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SONORA/AZ BORDER AND ACTIVITY
   FARTHER N.  IF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS CAN
   CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE/GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER
   DESERTS...THE THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF 40-55 KT WINDS MAY
   PROMPT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34241069 33200933 32830909 31630915 31390947 31321016
               31441078 33471203 33991195 34271140 34241069 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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