Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017
Areas affected...southwest Kansas...the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446...
Valid 110315Z - 110415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch 446 is scheduled to expire at
04Z. A few strong to severe storms persist from southwest KS into
the OK and TX panhandles, and storms will spread east and southeast
into the early morning. Storms may remain severe during the next
couple hours, but uncertainty exists regarding severe threat beyond
that time, so a downstream WW may or may not be necessary depending
on convective trends. One possibility is for current WW to be
locally extended in time, at least until it becomes more evident
whether or not a downstream WW is needed.
DISCUSSION...A few small storm clusters with embedded supercells
persist from southwest KS into the TX and OK Panhandles. Otherwise
new but elevated storms have formed over western OK within zone of
isentropic ascent and warm advection associated with a strengthening
low level jet, and these may pose a risk for small to marginally
severe hail. Farther west, storms will likely continue to evolve and
eventually grow upscale into a forward propagating MCS, supported by
the low-level jet and modest westerly flow aloft. However, the
thermodynamic and kinematic environments are not particularly
robust, and though storms may eventually organize into forward
propagating linear structures with some threat for damaging wind,
overall degree of a longer-term threat remains uncertain given the
potential limiting factors.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35330017 35900141 36740142 36760009 36659890 36119870