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Mesoscale Discussion 1474
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1474
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas...the Texas and Oklahoma
   Panhandles and northwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446...

   Valid 110315Z - 110415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch 446 is scheduled to expire at
   04Z. A few strong to severe storms persist from southwest KS into
   the OK and TX panhandles, and storms will spread east and southeast
   into the early morning. Storms may remain severe during the next
   couple hours, but uncertainty exists regarding severe threat beyond
   that time, so a downstream WW may or may not be necessary depending
   on convective trends. One possibility is for current WW to be
   locally extended in time, at least until it becomes more evident
   whether or not a downstream WW is needed.

   DISCUSSION...A few small storm clusters with embedded supercells
   persist from southwest KS into the TX and OK Panhandles. Otherwise
   new but elevated storms have formed over western OK within zone of
   isentropic ascent and warm advection associated with a strengthening
   low level jet, and these may pose a risk for small to marginally
   severe hail. Farther west, storms will likely continue to evolve and
   eventually grow upscale into a forward propagating MCS, supported by
   the low-level jet and modest westerly flow aloft. However, the
   thermodynamic and kinematic environments are not particularly
   robust, and though storms may eventually organize into forward
   propagating linear structures with some threat for damaging wind,
   overall degree of a longer-term threat remains uncertain given the
   potential limiting factors.

   ..Dial.. 08/11/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35330017 35900141 36740142 36760009 36659890 36119870
               35459913 35330017 

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