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Mesoscale Discussion 1474
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO THROUGH WCNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190329Z - 190500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE FROM NRN MO INTO WCNTRL
   IL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION FROM NRN MO INTO WCNTRL IL WHERE LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT WAS SAMPLED BY THE TOPEKA 00Z
   RAOB. VWP DATA FROM KANSAS CITY SHOW THE SWLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED
   TO 30 KT...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INITIATE WITHIN ZONE
   OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER NRN MO.
   SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH MAY ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40219488 40429289 40099099 39469064 39099167 39329457
               40219488 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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