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Mesoscale Discussion 1474
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 430...

   VALID 040207Z - 040400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 430 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR
   TWO CONTINUES ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 430 /ACROSS NE ND AND
   ADJACENT FAR NW MN/. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE
   NEXT TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MN.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS NE ND
   WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE NOW ENTERING FAR NW MN. RECENT
   SURFACE OBSERVATION AT LANGDON /KD55/ IN FAR NERN ND REPORTED A 40
   KT GUST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
   LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM
   FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. 

   ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE /ACROSS RAMSEY AND EDDY
   COUNTIES/...STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS EXIST.
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS PORTION OF THE
   LINE /ACROSS E-CNTRL AND SE ND/ WITH RECENT MVX VAD SAMPLING 0-3 KM
   SRH OVER 400 M2 PER S2. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST WITH A THREAT FOR ALL SVR HAZARDS...INCLUDING A TORNADO OR
   TWO. EVENTUAL LINEAR TRANSITION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS PORTION OF
   THE LINE.

   COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWD AND THE LLJ
   WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
   WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO NRN MN. AS A RESULT...A
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE ONGOING MCS AND
   THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE MCS IS UNCERTAIN. THESE
   NEGATIVE FACTORS CAST SOME DOUBT REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM
   WATCH. CURRENT DOWNSTREAM WATCH PROBABILITY IS 40-PERCENT.

   ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 08/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48279988 48839954 49189832 49189601 48909424 48279283
               47399264 46349320 46099484 46749675 47009951 47389985
               48279988 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2016
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