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Mesoscale Discussion 1475
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270158Z - 270330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL PROBABLY POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY AT 0155Z SHOWS A
   CYCLONICALLY-ROTATING SUPERCELL OVER NRN BARRON COUNTY WI AND OTHER
   WEAKER STORMS FARTHER N OVER NWRN WI.  WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
   MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ND/MANITOBA/MN BORDER REGION MOVING
   SEWD TOWARDS THE REGION.  NRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE UNDER
   INCREASING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF A 105-KT UPPER SPEED MAX OVER ERN SD THIS EVENING. 
   STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY AID IN SUSTAINING AT
   LEAST ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS
   DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.  A LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH
   SAMPLED BY THE 00Z MPX RAOB WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR MODE WITH THE
   MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  AS A RESULT...ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS
   EVENING.  THE COVERAGE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY
   PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45569217 46079189 46359141 45998959 45398922 44968950
               44839094 45229189 45569217 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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