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Mesoscale Discussion 1475
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB THROUGH WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

   VALID 190354Z - 190530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH 06Z FROM SWRN NEB THROUGH WRN KS...BUT OVERALL TREND WILL
   PROBABLY BE FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM SWRN
   NEB THROUGH NWRN KS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
   2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
   MODIFIED NORTH PLATTE RAOB SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY CAPPED AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE AS NEAR-SFC
   TEMPERATURES UNDERGO FURTHER COOLING. IN THE MEANTIME...FORCING
   ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

   ..DIAL.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38950202 41050091 41140024 39430017 38770053 38950202 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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