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Mesoscale Discussion 1476
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

   VALID 270329Z - 270430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH PRONOUNCED
   BOWING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
   KENTUCKY. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW 444...CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
   SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT. 
   THUS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

   DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED BOWING SEGMENT OF SVR TSTMS WITH A HISTORY
   OF SVR GUSTS/DAMAGE CONTINUES MOVING SE AT 35 KTS THRU
   N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KY. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS
   OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...AND WITH A
   WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WOULD TAKE THE
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST OF WW 444 IN THE 04Z-0430Z TIME FRAME...AND
   INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000
   J/KG/ AND INCREASING CINH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL
   THREAT MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

   ..BUNTING.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36688400 36628504 36728673 37068704 37458742 37758741
               37918709 38048630 38158550 38448494 38398431 38238382
               37648341 36918358 36688400 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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