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Mesoscale Discussion 1476
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...

   VALID 190603Z - 190700Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE EARLY MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 07Z
   EXPIRATION OF WW 439.

   DISCUSSION...LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTER FROM DECATUR TO WICHITA
   COUNTIES HAS HAD GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 20-25 KT. WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY LYING N OF A 1009 MB SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF RUSH COUNTY
   ALONG AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ARCING FROM FAR SERN CO TO
   NERN KS...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AIDED BY A 40-45 KT WARM-SECTOR LLJ
   SHOULD SUPPORT PERSISTENT OF THIS CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS OF CAMS. UEX VWP
   DATA WHICH LIKELY BEST SAMPLES THE DOWNSTREAM WIND PROFILE HAS
   RELATIVELY MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WITH STRONGER SPEEDS RELEGATED
   TO THE UPPER LEVELS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF
   THE CONVECTION AT PRESENT AND LACK OF MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   SINCE 03Z...STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39830043 39939984 39929885 39549857 39249865 38839908
               38499985 38340051 38390085 38900092 39510073 39830043 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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