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Mesoscale Discussion 1477
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270647Z - 270815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
   ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIOR TO
   THE INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0625Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
   SHOWED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE PHX METRO AREA NWD TO
   30 SM SOUTHEAST OF PRC MOVING WWD AT 10-15 KT...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
   STORMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN AZ.  GIVEN THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IN
   CENTRAL AZ AND INDICATION BY THE 00Z NSSL-4KM SUGGESTING THIS
   CLUSTER WILL ADVANCE WNWWD THROUGH 09-11Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
   FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AROUND 09Z IN YAVAPAI AND WRN
   MARICOPA COUNTIES.  RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE OF
   1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDING WWD FROM THE ONGOING STORMS AND VAD WINDS
   PER WSR-88D/S IN CENTRAL/SERN AZ SHOWING 20-25 KT ESELY 500 MB WINDS
   SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
   CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   PER OBSERVED 03Z PHX SOUNDING AND 05Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
   DISCUSSION AREA FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 
   GIVEN A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS CONTINUED SEVERE
   THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   31401099 31891148 32491317 33001367 33921392 35051331
               35031233 34911205 34341224 33841221 33431213 33231173
               32761152 32471078 32311046 31861025 31361016 31401099 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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