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Mesoscale Discussion 1477
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO TO SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...

   VALID 190646Z - 190815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT THE POSSIBILITY
   REMAINS FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WIND
   GUSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE.

   DISCUSSION...WNW/ENE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS STRUGGLED TO
   INTENSIFY TO AT/NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HAIL GROWTH HAS LIKELY BEEN
   LIMITED BY PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE AND ORIENTATION OF MODEST
   DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY PARALLELING THE CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD POOL FROM THE
   COMPARATIVELY GREATER MASS OF STORMS ACROSS NRN MO MAY SUFFICIENTLY
   STRENGTHEN TO RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF TREE DAMAGE.
   OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE GREATER THREAT /SEE WPC MPD
   363/.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40099430 40089327 40049256 39949160 39679100 39309023
               39228969 39028934 38848905 38568908 38478937 38468966
               38639044 39149188 39309308 39569408 39709441 40099430 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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