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Mesoscale Discussion 1478
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO AND ST. LOUIS METRO AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...

   VALID 190945Z - 191115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A PART OF
   THE BROADER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHIFTING SE FROM NERN MO. OVERALL
   TRENDS SUGGEST THE DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL BE TOO LOCALIZED/MARGINAL
   FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW BEYOND 12Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...COLD-POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER N-CNTRL/NERN MO HAS
   SUPPORTED SOME SEWD SURGE TO THE BROADER CLUSTER WITH AN AREA OF 35+
   KT INBOUND VELOCITIES SAMPLED ACROSS NEAR MONROE/RALLS/AUDRAIN
   COUNTY INTERSECTION BETWEEN 5-7K FT AGL. ALTHOUGH ORIENTATION OF
   THIS BAND REMAINS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP-LAYER WLYS EVIDENT
   IN LSX/EAX VWP DATA...PRESENCE OF WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS MAY
   SUPPORT SPORADIC AND LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE. BUT ON THE BROADER
   SCALE...AMALGAMATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS APPEAR TO BE LARGELY
   OUTPACING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN MARGINAL AT MOST INTO MID-MORNING.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39459094 39289040 38999010 38758983 38508994 38389015
               38369088 38459127 38699167 38969199 39279163 39459094 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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