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Mesoscale Discussion 1478
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL...WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270834Z - 271030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM EAST-CENTRAL
   IL AND SRN IND INTO ADJACENT NWRN KY...WITH ALL ACTIVITY TENDING TO
   TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  ISOLATED HAIL...SOME APPROACHING AROUND
   1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO
   THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN IL/WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL PARTS
   OF KY.

   DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW IN SWRN IL WITH
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SRN IL TO WRN KY.  MEANWHILE...
   WSR-88D VADS INDICATED A 35-40 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO
   THROUGH SRN IL/SWRN IND RESULTING IN WAA ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
   ONGOING TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN IL TO SRN IND AND NWRN KY.  THIS
   LLJ IS RESULTING IN A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN
   EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO AID IN SUSTAINING
   UPDRAFTS.  STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
   THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
   TRACKS SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE
   MORNING COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z.  THE PRESENCE
   OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1
   INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT MAY TEND TO
   LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE
   IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40508774 40178698 39348611 38228492 37448424 37058486
               37158557 37828649 39398799 40228861 40508774 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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