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Mesoscale Discussion 1479
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0908 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271408Z - 271515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY POSE A RISK FOR
   A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE
   COAST. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LONG-LIVED MCV MOVING OUT OF
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS. KRAX RADAR FROM 14Z SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY
   30-35 KT ON BASE VELOCITY W OF RALEIGH AT 1-2K FT...AND WITH
   CONVECTION LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
   WIND GUSTS APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
   DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS LINE AND WILL ERODE WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE 12Z
   GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE
   BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A
   RESULT...SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE
   MORNING...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN A STRONG WIND THREAT
   POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
   EARLY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36447606 35837608 34917656 34597756 34517860 34787913
               35307913 35977882 36337857 36697781 36757647 36447606 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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