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Mesoscale Discussion 1480
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND SRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271519Z - 271715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL FROM SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY.
   HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A CUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS
   FROM ERN AND SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS
   DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LLJ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING W
   AND SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
   LOW 80S WITH LOW 70F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A SHARPENING PRE-FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS INDICATED FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL MOVING
   SEWD. AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...NEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A SEWD
   ADVANCING UPPER JET. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
   ELEVATED STORMS FORMING ALONG WRN FLANK OF THE MCS TO BECOME SFC
   BASED AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS EWD WITH TIME. TIMING OF SFC
   BASED INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON MORNING RAOBS AND POINT
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN
   CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. STRENGTHENING
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET AND RELATED LLJ WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38918578 38018431 37168331 36668379 36638636 36678816
               37298834 37868738 38718680 38918578 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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