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Mesoscale Discussion 1480
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191729Z - 191900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO
   NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN WV. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
   BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN MCV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL
   IND. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY WEAK...LESS THAN 20
   KT...WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED /20-30 KT/ AS THE MCV TRACKS OVER
   THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WITH
   MAINLY STORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
   AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW
   VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES/...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/WET
   MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV THROUGH
   STORM MERGERS AND INTERACTIONS WITH OUTFLOWS WHILE TRACKING
   EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN
   WV. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN MARGINAL/SPORADIC AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
   TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   38028282 38048164 38628107 39218091 39538137 39738194
               39828269 40058368 40228439 40058478 38748461 38028282 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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