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Mesoscale Discussion 1481
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271652Z - 271815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS OH. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT INITIATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN OH. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
   ELEVATED...BUT STORMS MAY SOON BECOME SFC BASED AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S. A STRONG
   MID-LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING 40-50
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES MOSTLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...VWPS INDICATE SOME VEERING BETWEEN THE SFC
   AND 2 KM WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. AS STORMS
   BECOME SFC BASED...THEY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
   PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41218256 41468081 40418063 39518169 39778378 41128445
               41218256 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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