Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1481
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1481 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN NY / WRN MA / VT / NH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 191736Z - 192000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON AND BE PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WEAK
   DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD OVER SRN/COASTAL MAINE WITH A BUBBLING CU
   FIELD OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ZONE EXTENDS FROM WEAK CONVECTION OVER SRN MAINE WWD ACROSS
   A FRACTURED WARM FRONT AND INTO CNTRL NH/VT.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS CNTRL NY NEWD INTO SRN
   VT/NH WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED WHERE CLOUD BREAKS HAVE BEEN
   MOST PROMINENT THE PAST FEW HOURS.  MODIFYING THE 12Z ALB RAOB AND
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE REMOVAL OF APPRECIABLE REMAINING MLCINH IS
   QUITE APPARENT AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. 

   THE IMPLIED NEUTRAL OR WEAK DESCENT IN WAKE OF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
   IMPULSE MAY DELAY ISOLD-WIDELY SCTD CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   MIDDLE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE MAINE
   IMPULSE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
    SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AMIDST MOISTURE-RICH LOW LEVELS AND
   MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WILL
   BE WIND DAMAGE WITH 50-65 MPH GUSTS BUT HAIL AND WEAK MESOCYCLONES
   WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42487689 42987721 44987498 45007214 44217135 43287139
               42417353 42147615 42487689 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 19, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities