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Mesoscale Discussion 1482
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271654Z - 271800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL...STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING TSTMS
   ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER
   S INTO S-CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI THROUGH
   MID-AFTERNOON...WHERE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. 
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
   HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING ONE OVER CRAWFORD
   COUNTY AND ANOTHER OVER OTSEGO COUNTY. THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
   NEAR/AHEAD OF A SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR NRN LM...AND AN ATTENDANT
   SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN LOWER MI. DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURES
   CURRENTLY NEAR 70 F...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECTING
   EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW S OF LS...ARE SUPPORTING AN
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NRN LOWER MI. APX VWP DATA SHOWS
   LOCALLY BACKED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 1 KM
   AGL...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
   SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY TO BE
   NEAR-SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE
   THREATS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WRN SHORE OF LH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
   HRS.

   FARTHER S...INCLUDING S-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI...ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
   ONGOING...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE OCCURRING. AN INCREASE
   IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
   ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
   UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MORE
   VEERED/WLY...PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
   HAIL.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NRN LOWER
   MI...AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTMS FARTHER S...WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42938242 42268291 41848329 41878389 41848439 41938494
               43828524 44798521 45058543 45518500 45668482 45618418
               45298333 45048332 43978261 42938242 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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