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Mesoscale Discussion 1482
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHWEST
   PA AND FAR WESTERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191811Z - 192015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A STRONG WIND AND HAIL
   THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
   NY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
   NORTHWEST IND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV OVER WEST-CENTRAL
   IND AND IN A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
   ACROSS NORTHERN OH INTO NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY IS MODERATELY TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITH
   TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/LAKE
   BREEZE INTERACTIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
   ONTARIO ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY CROSS LAKE ONTARIO/ERIE. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MAIN
   STORM MODE AND STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41408357 41728249 42118080 42497966 42987807 42797772
               42187754 41727766 41197834 40897910 40278113 39998344
               40258417 40968408 41408357 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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