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Mesoscale Discussion 1482
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...FAR SRN IL...TN AND KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051928Z - 052200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
   NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AIR
   EXTENDING FROM NERN LA NNEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO SE MO AND WRN
   KY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES F
   AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE
   ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
   STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG OUTFLOW
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PULSE STORMS AND MULTICELL
   LINE-SEGMENTS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
   NON-SEVERE.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 08/05/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   35648730 35828626 36478539 37388496 37988530 38288609
               38218751 37619033 36849171 36129224 35449229 35059202
               34929140 35119057 35558935 35648730 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2016
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