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Mesoscale Discussion 1483
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191918Z - 192115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD INTO
   FAR SOUTHWEST NEB AND WESTERN KS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS AND
   A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND RETURN OF
   FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME HAS LED TO A WEAKLY
   CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP FURTHER
   WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITH TIME STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
   NUMEROUS AS THE LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE FLOW BELOW ABOUT 700MB
   IS RATHER WEAK...VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES AND STRONGER EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR /NEAR 35 KT/ WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...THAT
   MAY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THESE
   STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY
   EARLY IN STORM EVOLUTION WHEN CELLS ARE MORE DISCRETE. WHILE THE
   TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN HIGHER LCL/S AND WEAK
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR...A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR LAND SPOUT CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS
   FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR
   THIS AREA BY 21Z.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37620411 38200441 38970415 40120342 40570273 40610158
               40260090 39650053 38770052 38200074 37900107 37700138
               37220212 37120342 37620411 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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