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Mesoscale Discussion 1483
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271839Z - 271945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL IL...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
   SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
   FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
   IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERCOLATING CU FIELD
   ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST W OF
   VPZ TO NEAR DEC AS OF 1830Z. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING INVOF A
   WEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT S/W OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE AREAS
   ARE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...AS AN UPPER JET IS
   NOSING INTO NRN IL AND W-CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG
   HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
   ENHANCED BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE TO
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SURROUNDS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38808770 39198797 40148781 40438737 40448694 40318583
               40078554 39578543 38888578 38718684 38808770 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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