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Mesoscale Discussion 1484
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192212Z - 192315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE
   PAST HOUR IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST IS
   POSSIBLE...BUT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
   OF A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. 
   THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP SHEAR...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND 30F SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST
   THAT THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE A BRIEF SEVERE DOWNBURST AND HAIL
   THREAT.  LATEST INDICATIONS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
   TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUNSET...WITH A
   GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  GIVEN
   THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
   IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34460420 35090430 35850407 36520375 36930305 36940244
               36370188 35330176 34500216 33970286 34000357 34460420 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2015
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