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Mesoscale Discussion 1484
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271912Z - 272015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NY INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. COVERAGE
   OF THESE THREATS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A WEAK BAROCLINIC
   ZONE GENERATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING REINFORCED BY
   A COOLER AIR MASS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS W-CNTRL NY.
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING NWD TO NEAR/W OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
   THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION WERE LOCATED NEAR THE
   ALBANY/TRI-CITY AREA AS OF 19Z. THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE
   WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD
   INTO MAINE...WITH AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CENTERED OVER THE
   ERN HALF OF NY. WEAK SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS IS
   YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED TSTM
   CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
   CONVECTION...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   44917223 44797176 43977151 43017188 42237227 41767278
               41687346 41807411 42307446 42587503 42677538 43317517
               45037431 44917223 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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