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Mesoscale Discussion 1485
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 192243Z - 200045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN
   SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SOON.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
   SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE PAST HOUR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
   MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   ADVANCING UPON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  ALTHOUGH SOME
   CLOUD COVER IS NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEAK
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND INSOLATION HAS YIELDED 1000-2000
   J/KG MUCAPE AMIDST 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MID/UPPER 60S
   DEWPOINTS.  40-KNOT DEEP SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION...AND ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP THE
   TORNADO THREAT RATHER LOW...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
   CONVECTION MATURES.  THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A HIGHER
   SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE
   AFOREMENTIONED THREATS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41950112 41840032 41579976 40969928 40629918 40349946
               40250062 40290150 40370231 40580275 41170258 41660222
               41900180 41950112 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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