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Mesoscale Discussion 1486
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192240Z - 200015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
   A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A
   DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM WEST OF PHP INTO S-CNTRL SD AND N-CNTRL
   NEB /NEAR AND NW OF VTN/.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS CONVECTION
   IS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/CONFLUENCE ZONES
   PRESENT OVER WRN SD INTO WRN NEB AND WITHIN A WARM AND MOISTENING
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RAP-BASED MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER
   SD TO 1000-2000 J/KG OVER NEB.

   PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
   BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   MOVING INTO WRN SD TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
   ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
   SLY SURFACE WINDS IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY AMALGAMATE
   INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR GUSTY
   WINDS.

   WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OWING TO EXPECTED
   ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT THAT COULD NECESSITATE A
   WATCH.

   ..MEAD.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42250138 42830177 43220173 43610139 43690094 43320015
               43119978 42849896 42689811 42379772 41929785 41769831
               41779927 41810049 41960103 42250138 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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