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Mesoscale Discussion 1486
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND N-CNTRL AZ...W-CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272009Z - 272115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF ERN AND W-CNTRL
   NM...SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS N-CNTRL AZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL
   AZ AND FAR E-CNTRL NM...AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NWD
   OUT OF CHIHUAHUA INTO SWRN NM AND SERN AZ. SFC OBS SHOW A MOIST AIR
   MASS IS IN PLACE ALONG/N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH DEW POINTS IN
   THE MID-50S F...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A BELT OF
   20-30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA...ALONG THE WRN
   PERIPHERY OF A SRN HIGH PLAINS ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT...A
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   CONVECTION...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO PROGRESS NWWD TOWARDS N-CNTRL AZ
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TYPICAL STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
   FOR A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY. HAIL MAY ALSO
   ACCOMPANY STRONGER/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY PRESENT.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   32660828 32410879 32600991 33471082 34131181 34401209
               35281187 35411178 35691145 35891038 35590929 35100859
               34560800 34240798 32660828 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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