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Mesoscale Discussion 1487
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...NH...VT...MA AND NRN CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442...

   VALID 192329Z - 200100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER THE NERN STATES WITH GREATEST
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED FROM SERN NY THROUGH VT AND NH.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING
   WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE NERN STATES WHERE
   THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES
   INCLUDING MULTICELLS AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
   EVIDENT...AND VWP DATA INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT.
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH SERN
   NY...VT...NH EXTREME WRN MAINE INTO NRN MA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
   BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE WW INTO WRN MAINE...BUT SEVERE THREAT
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH INCREASING DISTANCE EAST OF A WARM FRONT. STORMS
   DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH ON THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO NERN NY
   WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY PREVIOUS
   CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH 01Z...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

   ..DIAL.. 07/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42257490 44287499 44947163 43417082 42437185 42257490 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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