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Mesoscale Discussion 1487
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA THROUGH WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272049Z - 272245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OR DEVELOP
   FARTHER EAST INTO WRN VA AND WRN NC. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
   WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN
   ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT
   APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FOR
   THIS REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SWRN VA INTO WRN NC.
   THE STRONGER CAPE IS OVER WRN NC WHERE GREATER DIABATIC WARMING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
   WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ANVIL DEBRIS IS LIMITING MORE ROBUST
   HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
   MOREOVER...WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNSLOPE
   INDUCED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS
   EWD...STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM WRN NC INTO WRN AND SWRN
   VA...PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36258190 36848150 37238020 37047889 35927980 35568203
               35808266 36258190 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2014
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