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Mesoscale Discussion 1489
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH THROUGH NRN PA AND WRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...

   VALID 200032Z - 200200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
   HALF OF WW 443 INCLUDING SRN PA. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 443 INCLUDING NERN OH THROUGH WRN NY IS
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS PERSIST FROM WCNTRL AND SRN
   OH THROUGH NRN PA WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL PA
   WHERE SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED.
   ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. ACTIVITY IN SCNTRL PA WILL
   REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE SRN EDGE OF WW 443 BY
   0130Z...AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 443 INCLUDING NERN
   OH...EXTREME NWRN PA INTO WRN NY.

   ..DIAL.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41268327 41728157 43357811 43897530 41387536 41047788
               40138206 41268327 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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