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Mesoscale Discussion 1490
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272308Z - 280015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING
   GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
   NWD ACROSS SWRN NM...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
   NWWD FROM CHIHUAHUA. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/REDUCTION IN CINH HAS
   ALLOWED SCATTERED STG/OCNLY SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE SFC TROUGH WITH MORE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA DISTURBANCE AND
   CONTINUED HEATING...A GENERAL INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
   MID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 15-20 KTS AND MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER
   COMBINED WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK
   FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT
   TERM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   32591218 32991058 33130982 33090925 33020824 32810804
               32430789 32020802 31800807 31770831 31440832 31350857
               31270909 31371073 31581175 31941235 32591218 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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