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Mesoscale Discussion 1491
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SWRN VA...NERN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

   VALID 272328Z - 280100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 445 FOR
   AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 00Z.  A NEW WW APPEARS TO BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
   ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
   EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
   WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AT THE SAME TIME...NEW DISCRETE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER
   SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. 
   ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH
   SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
   APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO TURN
   SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
   FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENTUCKY PORTION
   OF WW 445 APPEARS UNLIKELY.  BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
   RELATIVELY STEEP...AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
   A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND 00Z.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   38248515 38508409 37908283 36628171 35788329 35988496
               36528631 36958684 38248515 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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