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Mesoscale Discussion 1491
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 200321Z - 200445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM N-CNTRL INTO NERN NEB
   TONIGHT.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL WHICH EVOLVED OVER KEYA
   PAHA COUNTY PERSISTS AS OF 310Z WITH EXTRAPOLATION TAKING IT NEAR OR
   JUST WEST OF O NEILL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.  ANCILLARY STORMS HAVE
   FORMED IMMEDIATELY UPSHEAR OF THE SUPERCELL AND WILL LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE CREATION AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF A
   MESO-BETA-SCALE COLD POOL.  FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
   A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING FROM WRN SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB IN
   CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THESE STORMS AND
   PERHAPS PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO NERN NEB.

   THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE CONTINUED COOLING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  MOREOVER...THE MODEST /20-25 KT/ FORWARD SPEED
   OF THE STORMS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WINDS.  GIVEN THESE LIMITATIONS...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.  ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS TSTM COMPLEX.

   ..MEAD.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42289961 42659973 42979941 42869825 42609697 42299639
               41909618 41529632 41409708 41659815 42019896 42289961 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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