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Mesoscale Discussion 1492
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

   VALID 200336Z - 200530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF WW 444...BUT A DOWNWARD
   TREND IN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS HAVE
   CONGEALED INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING COMPLEX.  THESE STORMS ARE
   OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOLS STILL
   RELATIVELY CLOSE TO HEAVIER CORES IN NESS/HODGEMAN COUNTIES
   KANSAS...BUT MORE SEPARATE FROM HEAVIER CORES SOUTH OF DDC. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/INCREASING INHIBITION IS UNDERWAY...WHICH
   SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARD MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH TIME WHILE
   RELEGATING THE SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  IT
   REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WILL
   EXTEND...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH.

   FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
   THROUGH THE EVENING HAS STABILIZED THE AIRMASS IN MUCH OF THE
   REGION.  PARTS OF THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
   SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR/WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR MAY BE
   CANCELLED DUE TO THE DECREASED SEVERE THREAT THERE.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37379817 37209908 37160027 37260125 37490187 38080207
               38570193 38810121 38840038 38829943 38739848 38439804
               38029786 37519799 37379817 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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