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Mesoscale Discussion 1493
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0839 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN PA...NWRN NJ...NWRN
   MD...EXTREME NRN VA...NERN WV PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

   VALID 280139Z - 280245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST
   ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSTMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN PA AND OVER HARDY
   COUNTY WV...WITH LESS INTENSE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   WW AS OF 0130Z. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO REDUCE
   INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF
   WW...WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK-MOD MUCAPE PERSISTING ACROSS SRN/ERN
   PORTIONS. WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS
   AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NRN
   OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT/SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA. TSTMS MAY AGAIN INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AND...DESPITE STABILIZATION
   FROM EARLIER STORMS...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
   THIS TREND AND RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM THREAT.

   ..BUNTING.. 07/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41877882 41907590 41777536 41207465 40747483 40227493
               39847569 39787629 39787689 39457711 39317761 39267816
               39007843 38867868 38877883 39507893 39897908 40787878
               41877882 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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