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Mesoscale Discussion 1494
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NJ...DE...ERN MD AND CNTRL/ERN
   VA...INCLUDING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND N CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 280328Z - 280530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
   REGION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
   THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE NEED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCHES.

   DISCUSSION...AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...INCREASINGLY
   CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENING /50-70 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
   TO NOSE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE
   OF A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY
   HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND BACKING OF
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
   TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...IT
   DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONGOING SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
   VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...COULD GRADUALLY
   CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
   THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND...PERHAPS...A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37847891 38087811 38597751 38827682 39057641 39407560
               39757505 39677457 38067559 36927678 35937846 35847970
               36188062 37007972 37847891 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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