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Mesoscale Discussion 1494
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...AL...TN...KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201805Z - 201930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN
   TN...ERN KY. POORLY ORGANIZED AND RANDOM NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD
   KEEP OVERALL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISKS LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY
   AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTH AND EAST TO ERN KY WHERE LATEST
   OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATED MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
   INHIBITION. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLIER/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT IN THIS CORRIDOR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
   INTO THE UPPER 80S LOWER 90S F AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
   MIDDLE 70S F. EXPECT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
   PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
   MIDLEVEL WLY WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BEST. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS MCV AND MIDLEVEL SPEED
   MAX APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AT PRESENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
   THIS WILL OCCUR IN TIME TO INFLUENCE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECT
   ONLY AN ISOLATED AND LOCALLY SHORT-LIVED DOWNBURST WIND RISK...OR
   MARGINAL ISOLATED HAIL...ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   37838430 37958410 37968353 37608292 37138294 35878389
               35108488 34568597 34488651 34848719 35328735 35838728
               36898587 37328516 37838430 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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