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Mesoscale Discussion 1495
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TENNESSEE...WRN AND CNTRL N
   CAROLINA...WRN S CAROLINA...NRN GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...450...

   VALID 280432Z - 280600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448...450...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
   BE NEEDED TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...AN EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS...FOCUSED WITHIN A
   NARROW PRE-FRONTAL PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
   AIR...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...HAS BEEN
   MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
   HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING A BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 
   AND...AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
   VALLEY REGION TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
   SEABOARD...FORCING FOR CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
   CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY
   RECENT RADAR DATA WHICH SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING TRENDS TO CONVECTION
   MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED 40-50 KT
   DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS
   ENCOUNTERING THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
   COULD STILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST
   MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
   OUTPUT...SUGGESTS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE LOW.

   ..KERR.. 07/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35608213 36008048 35647947 34098258 34238436 35248520
               35578400 35608213 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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