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Mesoscale Discussion 1495
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
   OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201906Z - 202100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
   NORTHEAST NM INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. STRONG HEATING
   WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
   /EXCEPT OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S WERE NOTED/ HAS
   RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A WEAK COLD
   FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TCC IN
   EAST-CENTRAL NM TO PNC IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY...OR MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
   MOVE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT.
   HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.  REGARDLESS...MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES COUPLED WITH A DEEP SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW FOR
   SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. A WATCH
   IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRANSIENT/LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33760350 33960435 34470519 34870549 35700537 36160491
               36450416 36830272 36890237 36990028 37019945 37019628
               36929588 36619582 36449586 35949640 34819920 33940187
               33760350 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2015
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