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Mesoscale Discussion 1496
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AREAS OF
   SERN CT/SRN RI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280824Z - 281030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS /MAINLY LESS THAN 50 KT/ WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING AS THE NRN EXTENT OF
   A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND
   PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST OF SERN CT AND RI.  LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN OVERNIGHT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE
   OF TSTMS HAD MOVED OFF THE NJ COAST...AND WAS TRACKING ENEWD AT
   30-35 KT ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...WITH THE SRN EXTENT
   OF THIS LINE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS /60 E ACY/.  SURFACE DEW
   POINTS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER 70S ARE HELPING TO OFFSET
   SOMEWHAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY
   AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN
   GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY.  STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
   FROM DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA.  WSR-88D VAD AT OKX SHOWED VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE
   LOWEST 0.25-0.5 KM ARL...AND BACKING WINDS BETWEEN 0.5 KM TO AROUND
   1 KM ARL.  

   HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
   LAKES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...AND MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
   MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   40777310 40967298 41237273 41417154 41447121 41077084
               40507110 40277225 40327299 40777310 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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