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Mesoscale Discussion 1499
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO CNTRL/SRN GEORGIA AND
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...

   VALID 282336Z - 290100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE
   DECREASING.  THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN A ZONE
   ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
   SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
   COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THIS MAY BE AIDED BY
   WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR
   ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
   PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  

   IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS
   ALONG THE LINE...SOUTH OF MACON GA EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHARLESTON SC
   AREA... COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE 00-01Z
   TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH PRECEDING CONVECTION AND INLAND
   ADVANCING SEA BREEZES...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
   SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
   APPEARS LIMITED.  FURTHERMORE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING SEEMS TO
   LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

   ..KERR.. 07/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32248456 32278388 32378294 32518251 32538190 32528118
               33197981 33427917 33387887 32408040 32058160 32088203
               31858317 32068483 32248456 

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Page last modified: July 29, 2014
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