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Mesoscale Discussion 1501
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211846Z - 212045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF OF
   HIGHER TERRAIN. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST HEATING BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S HAS LED TO A WEAKLY TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. AS THESE
   STORMS MOVE OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN THEY WILL ENCOUNTER 30-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...LEADING TO SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED/MARGINAL
   SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST
   AND ACT TO LIMIT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS OVER TIME. BUT...COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THESE LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW
   FOR SOME SMALL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WHILE FLOW BELOW ABOUT 500 MB
   IS RATHER WEAK...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BUT DEEP
   SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALSO RESULT IN SPORADIC GUSTY TO
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY
   AND BETTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
   SHOULD BE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   39000545 39490533 40410498 40500456 40380413 40010375
               39450337 38820317 38280316 37780312 37070330 36270396
               36050476 36470524 39000545 

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Page last modified: July 21, 2015
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