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Mesoscale Discussion 1502
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...WRN N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302339Z - 310115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   INSUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2330Z...TSTMS WERE INCREASING IN CNTRL OK ALONG AN
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW NOTED W
   OF CHK. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY ASCENT AHEAD OF A VORT MAX
   MOVING ACROSS NRN OK AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE
   WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   MODEST WARMING HAS ALLOWED MLCAPE TO RISE TO 500-1500 J/KG.
   MEANWHILE...FAVORABLE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...AS NOTED IN
   THE OUN VWP...ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300
   M2/S2...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS. AS A
   RESULT...THERE IS SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK...THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LAPSE RATES
   WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE
   TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. 

   FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WRN N TX...STRONGER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
   GREATER INSTABILITY...WITH PERHAPS A GREATER CONDITIONAL RISK OF
   SEVERE STORMS COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS AREA
   IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE IN
   THIS AREA. 

   DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN GREATER SEVERE COVERAGE...WW ISSUANCE
   IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY
   MONITORED FOR AN UPTICK IN ORGANIZATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY AND
   ANY ADDITIONAL INITIATION FURTHER SOUTH.

   ..DEAN/MEAD.. 07/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33419993 34399941 35239867 35569817 35499765 35189711
               34709691 34449694 34109745 33769767 33439866 33419993 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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