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Mesoscale Discussion 1503
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NM...FAR WEST TX...WCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302348Z - 310115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS FROM WEST TX AND FAR SE NM ENEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. THE SEVERE
   THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
   MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
   LOCATED FROM NEAR MIDLAND-ODESSA NEWD TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
   WITH A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
   CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM. TO THE SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS...RAP DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME VERY
   STEEP WITH 0-3 KM VALUES APPROACHING DRY-ADIABATIC. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SEWD INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S F. THIS DRYER AIRMASS COMBINED
   WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
   AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31450152 31130341 31570413 32040428 32410393 32630347
               32820227 33140108 33310020 33019960 32489939 32189940
               31929982 31760022 31450152 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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