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Mesoscale Discussion 1504
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 310426Z - 310600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING MCS MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
   THE DFW METRO AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS
   THE PRIMARY THREAT. DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
   BE TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...AN MCS IS MOVING INTO N TX FROM SRN OK. THIS
   SYSTEM PRODUCED AT LEAST ONE WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS
   LOVE CO OK AT 0325Z. A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS IN
   PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH RECENT FWD VAD SHOWING 0-3KM SRH
   OF 400-500 M2/S2. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM AS THE MCS TRAVERSES A
   DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NW-SE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM.
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND PRESENCE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN
   THE MCS. 

   THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS THE
   RELATIVELY POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6 C/KM AND INCREASING SB CINH WITH TIME.
   THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS MAKE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN...BUT
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/MEAD.. 07/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32519720 32889751 33239775 33639786 33899759 33949699
               33569633 33269607 32989588 32739577 32459577 32249616
               32229663 32519720 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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