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Mesoscale Discussion 1504
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 212320Z - 220045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM THE
   CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
   HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WRN CAROLINAS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED WHILE
   MOVING INTO A HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT ALONG AND
   TO THE EAST OF A LEE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY
   IS LIKELY BEING FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION PROGRESSING INTO CNTRL NC AND N-CNTRL 
   SC.

   PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DOWNSLOPE WARMING INVOF
   THE LEE TROUGH HAS BOOSTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
   LOW 100S...RESULTING IN A DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  WHEN
   COUPLED WITH A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILE /PER RALEIGH
   WSR-88D VAD/...THE SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING AS THEY PROGRESS FROM THE
   PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..MEAD.. 07/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33768112 34558051 35208002 36027881 36407807 36477723
               36367650 35737646 35047730 33987900 33597962 33558032
               33498089 33768112 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2015
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