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Mesoscale Discussion 1505
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
   PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 220039Z - 220215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN
   INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING.  A WW IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFIED ALONG A WEAK E-W DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
   FSI TO NEAR RKR...AND ANOTHER REGION OF WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE
   ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THESE STORMS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
   EDGE OF SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA...BUT LATEST RADAR SUGGESTS STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO ORGANIZE
   AND SLOWLY FORWARD PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN COMANCHE/COTTON COUNTIES IN
   OKLAHOMA. 30 KNOT DEEP SHEAR AND AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE
   SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION.  

   LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE
   UNDERGOING A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
   BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.  GIVEN THE ISOLATED AND BRIEF NATURE OF THE
   SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 07/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32979955 33489862 33889765 34089633 34259480 34369429
               34719399 35039400 35339451 35399564 35279743 34879865
               34439935 33919968 33529985 33200023 32960019 32979955 

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Page last modified: July 22, 2015
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