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Mesoscale Discussion 1505
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311527Z - 311700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN NY
   ACROSS NT/NH AND INTO WRN ME. STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT
   LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   SBCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIMIT INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...BUT FAST STORM MOTION AND FORCING
   FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL BE
   ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO WRN
   ME...WITH STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SOME
   SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   STORMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42717332 42837385 43147416 43617419 44307412 44677388
               45127363 45437199 45787110 46187038 46356990 45996969
               45516947 44217005 43287121 42687251 42717332 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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