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Mesoscale Discussion 1506
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312129Z - 312300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE
   FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE RAP DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINE WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
   500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT
   OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   FEATURE ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS MAINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   WSR-88D VWP AT GRAY MAINE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 0-3 KM AGL
   WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 C MAY ALSO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   44866937 45026890 45306845 45836792 46286894 46247004
               45377043 45017027 44866937 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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