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Mesoscale Discussion 1506
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230034Z - 230100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST RISK MAY LINGER FOR
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THIS
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0030Z SHOWS A FEW STORMS LOCATED ON THE
   W EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RESERVOIR EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
   THE NEB SANDHILLS.  THE 23/00Z DDC AND LBF RAOBS SHOWED MODERATE
   BUOYANCY WITH ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  AS
   A RESULT...AN ISOLD LARGE-HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST RISK MAY
   CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   A RIBBON OF STRONGER H5 FLOW REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES AND ONLY A WEAK STRENGTHENING IN A CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LLJ IS
   FORECAST THIS EVENING.  GIVEN THE NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
   LACK OF APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECTING AN
   INCREASE IN MLCINH COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL COOLING TO LIMIT FURTHER
   STORM STORM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 07/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39130116 40260116 40110075 39180029 39130116 

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