Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1507
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1507 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312218Z - 312345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
   WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOSCALE LOW NEAR GRAND
   ISLAND NEB WITH A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER ERN NEB WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   RANGE. IN ADDITION...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE MID MO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS. THE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WHICH
   COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
   MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH MID-EVENING.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42419757 42419814 42069855 41309846 40379778 40179722
               40319665 40959632 41739664 42419757 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 31, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities