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Mesoscale Discussion 1507
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NORTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231521Z - 231715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS...IN
   ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. 
   BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...PEAK GUSTS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN
   MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT NEVERTHELESS COULD STILL BE
   STRONG/TURBULENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SPORADIC DAMAGE
   OF...AND RELATING TO...TREES/NEARBY POWER LINES.  ALTHOUGH A WATCH
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR INTENSIFICATION
   ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN APPEARS TO BE
   FOCUSED ALONG AND SUPPORTED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF WEAK
   WARM ADVECTION.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY
   HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND SUFFICIENTLY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MOST UNSTABLE/MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
   1000-2000+ J/KG.

   THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR THIS ZONE OF
   ASCENT MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 16-17Z.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
   POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LONG ENOUGH
   FOR SUBSTANTIVE SURFACE COLD POOLS TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT NEW/STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO/ THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AS INHIBITION FOR MOIST DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS ERODES.

   BENEATH 20-30 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...IT ALSO APPEARS
   THAT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY EXIST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...WHICH
   SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF RALEIGH...TOWARD
   COASTAL AREAS...THROUGH 18-21Z.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35547944 35977857 35577702 35077629 34117783 34147862
               34727937 35547944 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2015
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