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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MN/FAR NRN INTO NERN-EAST CENTRAL IA/FAR
SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568...569...
VALID 100636Z - 100700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
568...569...CONTINUES.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS WW/S 569 AND 569 AS STRONGER STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD INTO NERN IA. WW 568 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 07Z.
IF A BOWING STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED...THEN A
WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED INTO NERN/EAST CENTRAL IA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF FAR SWRN WI/FAR NWRN IL WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
0545Z IR SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AND ADJACENT NRN IA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN MORE S OF EAST WITH A LINEAR
STRUCTURE/BOWING SIGNATURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING. A MORE SEWD
TRACK IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING STORMS MOVING SEWD ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM NWRN-EAST CENTRAL/SERN IA. A
25-30 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO IA IS LIKELY FUELING THIS ONGOING
TSTM COMPLEX WITH A RESERVOIR OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY RESIDING
OVER THE MID/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LLJ WILL VEER TO WLY BY
12Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THIS MCS SHOULD TRACK SEWD REACHING EAST
CENTRAL IA BETWEEN 08-10Z.
..PETERS.. 07/10/2009
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43139081 42649022 41939007 41289109 42079240 42929375
43089480 43629501 43899457 43969394 43839273 43579124
43139081
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