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Mesoscale Discussion 1508
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT
   AREAS OF NRN SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231834Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION THEREAFTER.  A SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT...THOUGH TIMING REMAINS
   A BIT UNCERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AND
   HEATING/MIXING...CONTINUE NEAR A WEAK LOW WITHIN THE LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH...BENEATH A PLUME OF CAPPING WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. 
   ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO
   VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
   TROUGHING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  

   ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT...IT
   APPEARS THAT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION
   SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY
   AS 20-21Z...TO THE NORTHWEST/WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK.  DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...AT LEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAY NOT
   BECOME MORE THAN WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
   INITIAL STORMS.  THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING... WIND
   GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO THEN BECOME MORE PROMINENT THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   CONSOLIDATE WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE CENTRAL
   DAKOTAS.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47170232 48350158 48879992 47090012 45850005 45160206
               47170232 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2015
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