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Mesoscale Discussion 1508
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND AND PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012209Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
   AS OF 22Z FROM PARTS OF S-CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. REFLECTIVITY
   DATA FROM RAPID CITY INDICATE A CONCENTRIC RING OF CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW RADIATING OUTWARD FROM THE RAPID CITY VICINITY WHICH SHOULD
   SERVE TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. 

   THE MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
   GROWTH APPEARS TO BE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
   FAR SWRN ZIEBACH SWD THROUGH HAAKON AND JACKSON COUNTIES EWD TO
   AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...THE SETUP MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..MEAD/BROYLES.. 08/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43420163 44620222 45110213 45690178 46330134 46480074
               46179980 45199910 44589893 43789941 43270004 43100084
               43420163 

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Page last modified: August 01, 2014
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