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Mesoscale Discussion 1509
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE COLORADO...NWRN KS...CNTRL NEB AND ADJACENT S
   CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231934Z - 232030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST/DEVELOP
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 21-23Z.  A WATCH LIKELY WILL
   BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR THE LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH... PROBABLY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED...PERHAPS
   AIDED BY WEAK/SUBTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGHING
   PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS ACTUALLY CONFINED TO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
   AREA...WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
   WESTERLY...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH
   APPEARS TO STILL BE BUILDING.  

   THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
   UNCLEAR DUE TO THE APPARENT PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...BUT
   A FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH.  THIS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DESPITE THE GENERAL WEAK NATURE TO THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN
   FLOW/SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA...
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER...AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
   GUSTS IN STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40940319 41710215 42720068 43930043 43809864 41629884
               40409977 39390111 39290258 40940319 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2015
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