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Mesoscale Discussion 1509
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022207Z - 022330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB MAY REMAIN
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH 00Z. THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND
   DURATION. THEREFORE...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB ALONG A
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. VEERING LOW-LEVEL
   WIND PROFILES INCREASING TO NWLY 30 KT AT 500 MB IS RESULTING IN
   35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
   COOL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
   INCREASE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 08/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41629938 41819869 41409783 40789759 40439806 40369923
               40679991 40919935 41209915 41629938 

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Page last modified: August 02, 2014
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