|Mesoscale Discussion 1510|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017
Areas affected...South-central MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162308Z - 170045Z
CORRECTED FOR COUNTY NAME TYPO
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat should persist early this
evening across south-central Minnesota (north of a line from St.
James to Waseca, and generally south of a line from Redwood Falls to
Hutchinson). Although another tornado or two remains possible,
spatiotemporal limitations preclude the issuance of a watch.
DISCUSSION...Late afternoon/early evening surface analysis indicated
an area of low pressure located in southwest MN (south of Redwood
Falls), with a front extending northeast through Wright and Isanti
Counties to northwest WI. A high theta-e environment is present
south of this boundary, while objective analyses indicated
sufficient surface vorticity/strong effective SRH (200-300 m2/s2) to
support low-level rotation, as has been detected so far in Nicollet
into Sibley Counties. Marginal instability should limit the
coverage of sustained storms, though storms that continue to track
northward to the east/northeast of the surface low and the front
will have an enhanced probability to produce a tornado.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44299511 44709470 44929425 44959393 44659366 44259361
44129377 44059424 44099476 44139498 44299511
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