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Mesoscale Discussion 1510
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...

   VALID 231958Z - 232200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST NC AND POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHEAST SC.  PORTIONS OF OR MUCH
   OF THE FIRST ROW OF COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WW 446
   /HARNETT TO ONSLOW COUNTIES/ COULD BE REMOVED EARLY AS THE AIR MASS
   ACROSS THESE AREAS HAS STABILIZED.

   DISCUSSION...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES FROM SOUTHEAST NC INTO NORTHEAST SC LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EARLY EVENING.  AT 1935Z...THIS BOUNDARY
   EXTENDED FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF CARTERET
   COUNTY NC...AND WAS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 30 NM OFFSHORE...AND TRAILED
   SWWD TO NEAR ILM AND THEN WNWWD THROUGH BLADEN COUNTY NC TO HOKE AND
   ANSON COUNTIES NC.  THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...WHILE THE AIR
   MASS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE
   AROUND 1500 J PER KG/.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS NC...STORM
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE SC PORTION OF WW 446 AS 1/ THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES SWD AND 2/ IN VICINITY OF A WESTWARD-MOVING
   SEA BREEZE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED FOR SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..PETERS.. 07/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35167915 34747804 34757717 34637644 34337623 33967741
               33397791 33317848 32877898 33217981 33358039 34168086
               34488091 34708060 35328039 35167915 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2015
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