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Mesoscale Discussion 1510
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0608 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

   Areas affected...South-central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162308Z - 170045Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat should persist early this
   evening across south-central Minnesota (north of a line from St.
   James to Waseca, and generally south of a line from Redwood Falls to
   Hutchinson).  Although another tornado or two remains possible,
   spatiotemporal limitations preclude the issuance of a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Late afternoon/early evening surface analysis indicated
   an area of low pressure located in southwest MN (south of Redwood
   Falls), with a front extending northeast through Wright and Isanti
   Counties to northwest WI.  A high theta-e environment is present
   south of this boundary, while objective analyses indicated
   sufficient surface vorticity/strong effective SRH (200-300 m2/s2) to
   support low-level rotation, as has been detected so far in Nicollet
   into Sibley Counties.  Marginal instability should limit the
   coverage of sustained storms, though storms that continue to track
   northward to the east/northeast of the surface low and the front
   will have an enhanced probability to produce a tornado.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 08/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44299511 44709470 44929425 44959393 44659366 44259361
               44129377 44059424 44099476 44139498 44299511 

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