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Mesoscale Discussion 1510
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030247Z - 030415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. HOWEVER...DURATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY
   FUTURE HAIL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL
   PERSIST FROM SERN SD INTO NERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SEWD MOVING VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM. THE 00Z RAOB FROM OMAHA INDICATED 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7
   C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 36 KT DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
   OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...A MODEST INVERSION WAS ALSO INDICATED
   AROUND 800 MB SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD BE ON THE
   INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. WHILE THE DYNAMIC PRESSURE
   PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROTATING UPDRAFTS MAY HELP TO
   SUSTAIN STORMS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS
   EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 08/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   43679883 42749684 42039656 41729732 42109829 42949911
               43409936 43679883 

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Page last modified: August 03, 2014
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