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Mesoscale Discussion 1511
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT THROUGH NWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032156Z - 040000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING
   ACROSS NERN MT AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NWRN ND. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
   DEVELOPED OVER NERN MT JUST WEST OF GLASGOW WITHIN LEADING EDGE OF
   DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORTED
   BY MODEST /6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOW 80F TEMPERATURES
   AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT IS SUFFICIENT
   FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
   ALSO POSSIBLE. GIVEN A SOMEWHAT MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THE
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
   THEREFORE...ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 08/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47040755 48260672 48900520 48740328 47420286 46850396
               46860588 47040755 

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