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Mesoscale Discussion 1511
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...

   VALID 232321Z - 232345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL ND AND PERHAPS
   EXTEND INTO N-CNTRL SD.  LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM N-CNTRL ND SWWD INTO SWRN ND AND A
   DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM A WEAK LOW 45 MI WNW BIS.  A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG BUOYANCY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE
   WARM/MOIST SECTOR.  VEERING FLOW IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER AND
   STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS.  THE ESEWD MOTION OF THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN AHEAD OF THE STRONGER STORMS LOCATED OVER W-CNTRL ND AND WILL
   PROBABLY LIMIT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
   UNDERCUTTING CHARACTER OF THE FRONT.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS THIS EVENING AS THE
   ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO CNTRL ND.

   ..SMITH.. 07/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45660167 46050207 47900173 48830045 48979951 48739892
               45749993 45480082 45660167 

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Page last modified: July 23, 2015
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